The Infrastructure Debt Renaissance

How AI and Energy Transition Are Fuelling a Trillion-Dollar Market

A convergence of technological disruption and climate imperatives is propelling infrastructure debt into a new golden age, with the global private market approaching $1 trillion in 2025 and delivering returns that rival equity investments—all while offering superior downside protection.

The infrastructure debt market is experiencing an unprecedented resurgence, driven by two powerful megatrends: the artificial intelligence boom and the global energy transition. As investors seek stability amid volatile public markets, they are flocking to an asset class that combines predictable cash flows, hard asset collateral, and yields that increasingly compete with equity returns. This is not merely a cyclical uptick—it represents a fundamental repricing of infrastructure's role in modern portfolios.

A Trillion-Dollar Milestone

The numbers tell a compelling story. Nuveen's Energy Infrastructure Credit unit estimates that the global private infrastructure debt market is approaching $1 trillion in total investments in 2025, representing approximately 10 percent growth from 2024. This milestone underscores infrastructure debt's evolution from a niche financing tool to a mainstream asset class commanding serious institutional capital.

"This growth underscores the expanding role private infrastructure debt plays in the buildout of essential systems, particularly in energy, power and digital infrastructure," notes Don Dimitrievich, senior managing director and portfolio manager for energy infrastructure credit at Nuveen. The scale of this expansion reflects investor recognition that infrastructure debt offers something increasingly rare: visibility and security in an uncertain world.

Marta Perez, chief investment officer for infrastructure at Allianz Global Investors, characterizes the current moment as "a clear resurgence in activity" following a period of relative slowdown driven by elevated interest rates, inflation uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. "The market is transitioning from a defensive posture to a more constructive environment, underpinned by long-term secular needs," she explains.

This constructive environment has translated into dramatic growth for major players. Blackstone Credit & Insurance crossed the $100 billion assets under management mark in infrastructure and asset-based credit in 2025, representing almost 30 percent year-over-year growth. The firm's overall credit assets reached $508 billion, with infrastructure credit growing at 33 percent annually.

The Data Centre Gold Rush

At the heart of infrastructure debt's resurgence lies an insatiable appetite for digital infrastructure, particularly data centres required to power artificial intelligence workloads. The scale of investment is staggering major technology companies are projected to spend over $2 trillion in the next five years on compute infrastructure alone.

Rick Campbell, senior managing director at Blackstone Credit & Insurance, identifies two key mega-trends driving today's infrastructure credit market: digital infrastructure and demand for energy and power. The data centre buildout has created what Carras Holmstead, an investment partner at Palistar Capital, describes as an unprecedented capital flow: "You've seen a huge amount of capital flow into [infrastructure] debt to fund these data centres".

The appetite for data centre financing has reached such intensity that nearly $200 billion in total debt was raised for data centre development in 2025, including several transactions exceeding $10 billion. This includes Meta's record-breaking $27 billion joint venture with Blue Owl Capital, which priced at a spread of 225 basis points over benchmarks—double the spread of Meta's long-term debt. For context, data centre-related debt issuance nearly doubled to $182 billion in 2025 from $92 billion the previous year.

Yet this fervour has created a striking market dynamic. Holmstead notes a stark divergence in the U.S. digital infrastructure credit market between data centre infrastructure debt and everything else, most evident in the yields these investments command: "If we were going to do a junior debt instrument in a data centre company two years ago, we could have gotten 12-13 percent, and now you're lucky to get 9 percent and you're taking similar risks".

This spread compression—yields falling from A-rated data centre asset-backed securities pricing at 210 basis points over benchmarks two years ago to 160 basis points more recently—has pushed managers like Palistar to seek value elsewhere, particularly in wireless towers and fiber networks. "It's unprecedented how much debt has chased a sector," Holmstead observes, expressing concern about the future refinancing of this mountain of data centre debt.

Scale as Competitive Advantage

The infrastructure debt market is increasingly bifurcating between those who can deliver capital at scale and those who cannot. Campbell emphasizes that "being able to deliver financing solutions at scale, I think that's what really commands the spread premium over public markets".

Blackstone's $7 billion investment for a 49.9 percent stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners' Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project exemplifies this advantage. The entire project carries an estimated $15 billion price tag—equivalent to the market capitalization of a major corporation—requiring incremental capital expenditures of approximately $12 billion plus $2 billion for shared common facilities. "Very few investors on the planet could provide a fully baked capital solution like we did there," Campbell states.

The ability to write massive checks creates unique opportunities. Holmstead highlights that large and small private debt managers can benefit from a strong fundraising market because of the availability of big deals and offtake opportunities with unprecedented credit quality: "It's rare that as a private credit [firm], your real offtake is a $1 trillion market cap company like you're seeing with Meta, Google or Amazon".

This scale imperative extends beyond pure capital provision. Campbell argues that "our counterparties aren't looking to build a $500 million project. They're looking to build a $20 billion project, and so I think you've got to match their scale". The future, in his view, belongs to managers capable of matching the scale and capital requirements of modern infrastructure projects.

The Diversification Premium

Beyond scale and growth, infrastructure debt is attracting capital because it offers genuine portfolio diversification in an era when traditional asset class correlations have broken down. Harlan Cherniak, Americas head of infrastructure credit at Macquarie Asset Management, positions infrastructure credit as "one of the largest investment opportunities within the broader asset-based finance market".

Cherniak draws a provocative parallel: "Infrastructure debt is where middle market direct lending was 16 years ago coming out of the global financial crisis"—an underserved market with few specialized competitors poised for explosive growth. He points to a significant mismatch between the supply and demand for capital to address mega-trends including decarbonization, deglobalisation, onshoring, and demographic shifts.

The diversification value stems from infrastructure's fundamentally different cash flow characteristics. As Cherniak explains, infrastructure debt offers superior risk-adjusted returns because of "high-quality earnings" based on "transparent and contracted price x quantity models," contrasting sharply with corporate lending's reliance on "debatable adjustments to EBITDA". Infrastructure cash flows prove more predictable and less risky, with private infrastructure demonstrating a 0.32 correlation to global equities.

Alessandro Merlo, partner and head of strategy and business development at Rivage Investment, characterizes infrastructure debt as combining "the defensive yield of maintaining and repairing essential infrastructure assets with the equity-like growth potential from technological innovation in areas like data centres and the energy transition"—effectively, a convertible bond structure.

The investor base is expanding accordingly. Merlo observes that demand has moved beyond traditional insurance companies, with higher-returning strategies drawing interest from pension funds, family offices, Asian sovereign wealth funds, and North American institutional investors. "Even in the wholesale business, like retail and high-net-worth individuals, we've started seeing increasing interest for the asset class," he notes.

Infrastructure debt assets under management grew at a compound annual growth rate of 23.1 percent, positioning the asset class as an increasingly sizeable and influential constituent of the infrastructure funding mix.

The Yield Equation               

Perhaps most remarkably, infrastructure debt is delivering returns that increasingly rival or exceed core infrastructure equity—but higher in the capital stack with greater downside protection. This unusual dynamic reflects the confluence of spread compression in some sectors and persistent illiquidity premiums in others.

Perez notes that in certain segments—particularly Holdco debt, subordinated debt, and mezzanine structures—returns have approached levels historically associated with infrastructure equity, while offering "downside protection inherent to debt, alongside earlier, more predictable cashflows and a reduced J-curve". "In a rising-rate environment, this has made infrastructure debt particularly compelling," she observes.

Dimitrievich confirms receiving feedback that total returns from infrastructure debt are "competitive with—or in some cases above—core and core-plus infrastructure equity strategies". For investors seeking yield, infrastructure debt can offer higher yields earlier in the fund life compared to equity investments, with well-structured deals featuring covenants, collateral, and amortization offering risk-adjusted returns competitive with equity.

InfraRed Capital Partners projects net entry returns for core infrastructure equity at approximately 9.6 percent in 2026, with value-add strategies targeting around 14.4 percent. Against this benchmark, infrastructure debt yields in the 6-9 percent range for investment-grade strategies and 12-13 percent for mezzanine and Holdco structures represent compelling risk-adjusted propositions.

The higher interest rate environment has fundamentally reset investor expectations. Holmstead observes a discernible shift over the last three years: "Seven percent no longer cuts it for high-yield or private credit managers because you could get 4 percent risk-free". Digital infrastructure debt now requires yields in the 9 to mid-9 percent range just to attract interest, while the market for higher-risk, double-digit-yielding Holdco or second-lien debt remains robust.

In the fibre segment specifically, while senior debt remains conservatively priced at approximately four times EBITDA, riskier mezzanine tranches offer yields of 12-13 percent due to "heavy capital intensity," according to Holmstead. Private high-yield BB infrastructure credit spreads in 2025 typically start in the high 200s to low 300s basis-point range over SOFR for yields of approximately 7.00 percent or higher—well above the BB U.S. High Yield Index option-adjusted spread averaging approximately 185 basis points.

The Capital Stack Opportunity

A key insight emerging from current market dynamics is the growing opportunity in the middle of the capital structure—between senior debt and pure equity. Merlo emphasizes this gap: "You have senior debt sitting at 4-5 percent yield and then you have the equity sitting at 13 percent return. And suddenly you have a big gap in the middle to fill in terms of capital structure".

While core equity funds struggle to achieve returns at the 13 percent level, "the real opportunity lay in the layer of capital between senior debt and pure equity, such as mezzanine debt, junior debt or preferred equity," Merlo argues. "That space between 5 percent yield and 13 percent returns is where the opportunity is today," he states, noting infrastructure credit's role in meeting demand in the 6-9 percent yield space.

This structural arbitrage opportunity exists because infrastructure assets can support more sophisticated capital structures than traditional corporate borrowers, given their contracted revenues, hard asset collateral, and essential service characteristics. Infrastructure debt has demonstrated lower historical loss rates than similarly rated corporate debt—1.95 percent at the five-year horizon for infrastructure debt versus 4.91 percent for non-financial corporate debt.

Yet Merlo cautions that this opportunity comes with risks. In chasing high target returns of 11-13 percent in a world where senior debt costs 5 percent, equity sponsors could be tempted to add excessive mezzanine debt: "To get to those types of returns, you are leveraging your company more and more and you are concentrating risk on the equity side".

The Overleveraging Warning

This caution about excessive leverage is emerging as a critical theme among sophisticated infrastructure debt investors. Perez echoes the warning on potential pitfalls: "While infrastructure assets are inherently resilient, there are limits; overly aggressive capital structures can test that resilience, as demonstrated by recent stress cases in the UK water sector".

The UK water sector provides a cautionary tale. Thames Water, the UK's largest water supplier, teetered on the verge of financial failure in 2025, with the sector requiring an estimated £47 billion ($62.52 billion) in investment over five years. Britain's regulators failed to drive sufficient investment, with deteriorating pipes and overwhelmed treatment facilities leading to numerous sewage discharges contaminating rivers and coastal waters.

The National Audit Office criticized regulators for their insufficient grasp of infrastructure conditions and questioned the clarity of pricing models for investors. Average water bills for households in England and Wales increased by 26 percent in 2025, yet the infrastructure remained dangerously undercapitalized. Perez argues it is "essential to balance the need for significant infrastructure investment with disciplined underwriting and prudent structuring to avoid repeating past excesses".

The Energy Transition Catalyst

While digital infrastructure dominates headlines, the energy transition represents an equally powerful—and perhaps more durable—driver of infrastructure debt demand. The push toward decarbonization, coupled with surging electricity demand from AI and electrification, is creating massive financing needs across the energy value chain.

Allianz Research estimates that over the next decade, the global economy will need to invest nearly 3.5 percent of GDP per year—approximately $4.2 trillion—to future-proof social, transport, energy, and digital infrastructure. Energy infrastructure alone faces an annual investment gap of $1.5 trillion, with underinvestment particularly acute in the United States and emerging markets.

Nuveen's EPIC II fund, which raised $1.3 billion at first close toward a $2.5 billion target in 2025, exemplifies the capital flowing into energy infrastructure credit. The strategy invests across the entire energy and power ecosystem—from renewables and energy storage to hydrocarbons, midstream, and liquified natural gas.

Dimitrievich frames the opportunity: "Investors are increasingly interested in strategies that capitalize on their conviction in the growing global energy demand brought on by digitalization, electrification and reindustrialization while also seeking downside risk mitigation to guard against macro volatility, and inflationary and geopolitical risk".

The International Energy Agency estimates that in the United States, data centres are on course to account for nearly half of electricity demand growth through 2030, largely driven by AI usage. This has created unprecedented demand for gas-fired power plants, transmission infrastructure, and grid modernization—all requiring massive debt financing.

Blackstone's investment in the Sempra LNG project, where natural gas will be liquefied for export, demonstrates how energy infrastructure credit spans the entire hydrocarbon value chain. With commercial operations expected in 2030 and 2031 for the two new liquefaction trains, the project exemplifies the long-term, contracted nature of energy infrastructure investments.

The Regulatory and Bank Retreat

A structural driver underpinning infrastructure debt's growth is the continued retreat of traditional banks from long-term infrastructure financing—a trend that accelerated following post-financial crisis regulations. Cherniak highlights that banks pulling back from certain financing activities has "created a major gap for non-bank lenders".

Post-GFC financial regulation limited commercial banks' ability to hold long-term debt on their balance sheets, creating space for private credit managers to step in. This regulatory arbitrage, combined with banks' reduced risk appetite for large, complex infrastructure projects, has opened a sustained opportunity for specialized infrastructure debt managers.

The regulatory environment has also proven favourable in terms of government support for infrastructure investment. The U.S. Congress approved a large infrastructure package in 2021 with bipartisan support aimed at modernizing bridges, tunnels, railroads, and building high-speed internet connections. The Inflation Reduction Act added further funds for infrastructure projects with attractive co-investment opportunities for the private sector.

While questions persist about whether government spending will remain supportive—particularly amid concerns over ballooning deficits—reduced public sector funding could paradoxically "spark more interest from the private sector amidst potential higher yields in the context of decreased supply," according to the CFA Institute.

Market Dynamics and Spread Compression

Despite the overall positive narrative, infrastructure debt faces real challenges, particularly around spread compression in the most sought-after sectors. Dimitrievich acknowledges that spread compression represents "one of the pressing challenges facing the asset class, particularly in data centres and utility scale solar".

Nuveen's Energy Infrastructure Credit team has "reviewed and declined many transactions in each sector," Dimitrievich states, adding that the firm continues looking for value-add opportunities where structure and covenant packages can justify pricing. This discipline reflects a maturing market where not all infrastructure debt trades at attractive risk-adjusted spreads.

Campbell expresses doubts about whether spreads can continue to compress in the data centre debt sector, pointing to "the volume of data centres being built, leasing pipeline and the refinancing of existing construction debt as likely factors that could shape the development of spreads". Some market observers, including Oaktree's Howard Marks, question whether spreads of only 100 basis points over U.S. Treasuries adequately compensate for "30 years of technological uncertainty".

The market is also showing signs of bifurcation by subsector. While data centre spreads have compressed dramatically, other segments maintain wider spreads. Holmstead's shift toward wireless towers and fibre networks reflects this hunt for relative value within the digital infrastructure universe. Similarly, managers are finding opportunities in less-crowded sectors like midstream energy, transportation infrastructure, and social infrastructure.

 Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

The infrastructure debt market stands at an inflection point. Cherniak observes that "the next 10 years could be dramatically more uncertain than the preceding decade". "None of us are naive to think that the world where we lived in with zero-interest-rate policy, and what felt like almost infinite liquidity and backstops from central banks and governments around the world, [would last] forever. Things could get pretty tricky," he warns.

Yet this uncertainty may actually enhance infrastructure debt's appeal. A strategy combining yield, diversification, and powerful structural protections proves ideal for a less predictable economic landscape, Cherniak argues. The asset class's low correlation with business cycles, essential service nature, and contracted cash flows provide resilience that few alternatives can match.

McKinsey estimates that a cumulative $106 trillion in investment will be necessary through 2040 to meet the need for new and updated infrastructure globally. Brookfield anticipates that the "Three Ds"—digitalization, decarbonization, and deglobalization—will drive an infrastructure super-cycle requiring $200 trillion in investment over the next 30 years. With infrastructure and renewable assets typically financed 50-70 percent with debt, a significant share of this capital deployment opportunity will flow through infrastructure debt markets.

The coming years will test the market's ability to maintain pricing discipline while scaling to meet unprecedented financing needs. Risks include potential refinancing challenges as the mountain of data centre debt matures, construction delays and cost overruns on large projects, technological obsolescence in rapidly evolving sectors like AI infrastructure, and regulatory shifts that could alter project economics.

Yet for investors seeking stable, inflation-protected income with downside protection, infrastructure debt's value proposition has rarely been stronger. As Merlo frames it, the asset class offers "a safe investment to navigate turbulent economic cycles while benefiting from contractual returns". With its non-cyclical nature, high barriers to entry, predictable interest payments, and safety of principal, infrastructure debt has evolved from a niche financing tool into a core portfolio allocation for sophisticated institutional investors.

The renaissance in infrastructure debt reflects something deeper than cyclical market dynamics—it represents recognition that in an increasingly uncertain world, assets tied to essential services, backed by hard collateral, and supported by long-term contracts offer a rare combination of security and return.

As the trillion-dollar milestone approaches, infrastructure debt has firmly established itself not as an alternative to traditional fixed income and equity, but as an essential component of modern portfolio construction.

Sources

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https://www.infrastructureinvestor.com/the-energy-transition-ai-boom-are-driving-an-infra-debt-resurgence/

 Market size, infra debt growth, portfolio role

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https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/11/27/infrastructure-debt-unlocking-investment-opportunities-in-a-transforming-economy/

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https://www.cbreim.com/insights/articles/infrastructure-quarterly-q3-2025

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https://www.cbreim.com/insights/articles/infrastructure-quarterly-q4-2025

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Brookfield – “Private Credit Opportunities: The Universe Keeps Expanding”

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McKinsey – “Investing in the infrastructure of modern society” (2025)

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/infrastructure/our-insights/the-infrastructure-moment

AI, data centres and digital infrastructure debt

Reuters – “Five debt hotspots in the AI data centre boom” (Dec 2025)

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/five-debt-hotspots-ai-data-centre-boom-2025-12-11/

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https://www.jll.com/en-sea/insights/market-outlook/data-centre-outlook

Blackstone, Sempra and large-scale transactions

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https://www.blackstone.com/our-businesses/infrastructure/

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Milbank – “Milbank Advises Blackstone Credit & Insurance on $7B Consortium Investment in Sempra Infrastructure Partners’ Port Arthur LNG Phase 2”

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​

Sempra – “Sempra Infrastructure Partners Makes FID on Port Arthur LNG Phase 2” (via Yahoo)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sempra-infrastructure-partners-makes-fid-150000729.html

LNG Industry – “Sempra reaches FID for Port Arthur Phase 2”

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Nuveen, AllianzGI, Palistar, Rivage, Macquarie

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https://www.nuveen.com/global/investment-capabilities/real-assets/energy-infrastructure-credit

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https://www.marketsmedia.com/nuveen-raises-1-3bn-for-energy-infrastructure-credit-fund/

https://www.esgtoday.com/nuveen-raises-1-3-billion-for-new-power-generation-and-sustainable-infrastructure-credit-fund/

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Allianz Global Investors – “Transforming Infrastructure”

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Palistar Capital – firm site

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Palistar / Netomnia junior debt financing

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https://palistar.com/palistar-has-participated-in-a-160-million-junior-debt-financing-for-netomnia-the-uks-second-largest-alternative-network-provider/

Sixth Street & Palistar – FirstLight Fiber financing

https://www.abladvisor.com/news/39518/sixth-street-palistar-capital-provide-120mm-debt-financing-for-firstlight-fiber

Macquarie Asset Management – private credit / infra credit expansion

https://www.macquarie.com/us/en/about/news/2023/macquarie-asset-management-makes-strategic-hires-to-support-expansion-of-private-credit-solutions.html

https://inforcapital.com/news/macquarie-backs-1-2gw-ccgt-in-texas-with-450m-loan/

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https://www.rivageinvestment.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/pr-uk-120925.pdf

Yields, spreads, infra debt vs equity

Markets Group – “Infrastructure Debt: A Compelling Private Credit Portfolio Addition” (Nov 2025)

https://www.marketsgroup.org/strategic-insights/infrastructure-debt-a-compelling-private-credit-portfolio-addition/

InfraRed Capital Partners – “Infrastructure Strategic Outlook 2026”

https://www.ircp.com/news/infrastructure-strategic-outlook-2026/

https://www.ircp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/InfraRed-Strategic-Outlook-2026.pdf

InfraRed – “Infrastructure Strategic Outlook 2025”

https://www.ircp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/InfraRed-Outlook-2025.pdf

Energy transition, investment gaps, policy

Allianz Research – “3.5% to 2035: Bridging the global infrastructure gap” (2025)

https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2025/july/2025-07-10-3-5-to-2035-global-infrastructure-gap.pdf

Franklin Templeton / ClearBridge – “Infrastructure outlook: AI, decarbonization and policy tailwinds” (Dec 2025)

https://www.franklintempleton.lu/articles/2025/clearbridge-investments/infrastructure-outlook-ai-decarbonization-and-policy-tailwinds

Sol Systems and Macquarie – solar projects financing

https://solarquarter.com/2024/06/05/sol-systems-and-macquarie-asset-management-announce-85-million-investment-in-solar-projects/

UK water sector leverage and stress

Reuters – “UK water crisis: regulators partly to blame says budget watchdog” (Apr 2025)

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/uk-water-crisis-regulators-partly-blame-says-budget-watchdog-2025-04-25/

The Telegraph – “Crumbling water industry is damaging Britain's economy, MPs warn” (July 2025)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/18/crumbling-water-industry-damaging-britains-economy-mps-warn/

Atlas Institute – “The UK’s Thames Water Crisis” (Oct 2025)

https://atlasinstitute.org/the-uk-water-and-thames-water-crisis-part-one-the-market-solution/

UK Government – “Water resources 2023–2024: analysis of the water industry’s annual water resources performance reports”

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-resources-2023-2024-analysis-of-the-water-industrys-annual-water-resources-performance-reports